It is always difficult to evaluate national teams after a long winter break, especially when it comes to Ukraine, where club tournaments have also been suspended. However, fans of the Ukrainian national team are united on the question that interests everyone: will the blue-yellow’s be able to make it to the final part of the summer Euro. It was not possible to do this through qualification: as often happens with Ukrainians, the lot was very unfavorable. Therefore, the Nations League playoffs are the last chance to snatch the coveted ticket.
If you are interested in sports betting, visit mostbet azerbaycan indir. We propose to consider the chances of ultimate success.
First step – semi-final
For those who do not know: in order for Ukraine to get to the Euro, it needs to consistently defeat two opponents, playing the semi-finals and final. Any misfire and the ticket is lost. The draw has been made, the opponents are known – it remains to be seen whether expectations will come true.
Immediately after the draw, both bookmakers and fans were united in their optimism: Ukraine looked like the clear favorite of its bracket, and in general was considered perhaps the most obvious winner of the Nations League playoffs (there will be three of them, according to the number of quartets). In fact, no one guaranteed success for the blue-and-yellows, and their chances of qualifying for the Euro (with odds of 2.05) are even lower than those of the Poles competing in the “neighboring” mini-tournament – they give exactly 2.0
It is noteworthy that in the semi-finals the odds for Ukraine’s victory are given approximately the same as in the quartet as a whole – 2.0. True, to qualify, you can potentially play a draw (3.55) and then win a penalty shootout, but this is undesirable – you may not have time to recover before the final. But the opponent is Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is also playing at home.
The condition of the Bosnians looks ambiguous. In the last ten years, the generation of Dzeko and Pjanic has worked wonders with a composition that can be called weak. The results are a sensational trip to the 2014 World Cup (even with one victory in the group), participation in Division A in the 20/21 Nations League (one draw each with Italy and the Netherlands), and Bosnia also made it to the upcoming 24/25 draw.
At the same time, the team is only 69th in the FIFA rankings, and the classic qualification for the Euro has completely failed – fifth place in the group, with 7 defeats in 10 matches. Victories were gained over Iceland (in the already distant first round) and twice over modest Liechtenstein, but Luxembourg did not stand on ceremony, shocked the Balkans in both meetings (2:0 and 4:1) and naturally overtook them in the table.
If Bosnia does not come to its senses, it will become an easy opponent for Ukraine, and the odds of 2.0 will still seem too high. On the side of the hosts of the semi-final match are passionate Balkan stands who will desperately chase their favorites.
Opponent for the final
It is wrong to divide the skin of an unkilled bear, but in the parallel semi-final, Israel and Iceland will play for the right to compete with the Ukrainians or Bosnians. The Israelis will have to play their home match in Budapest – the war in the Middle East does not seem close to ending.
We have already briefly touched on the topic of Iceland – it is a “teammate” of half-dead Bosnia, and even that was able to beat the islanders in the first round of qualifying. The history of this team is very similar to the Bosnian one. The historically modest team recently experienced its greatest rise in the form of the quarter-finals of Euro 2016, qualified for the 2018 World Cup (scored one point in the group), spent two seasons in the League of Nations A division (18/19 – 0 points, was not relegated due to the expansion of the trio to quartets, 20/21 – the same steering wheel and reduction).
Since then, Icelanders have not grabbed stars from the sky. In the FIFA rankings they are even lower than the Bosnians – in 71st place. Qualification for the Euro failed – fourth position in the group and only one point more than Bosnia (two triumphs over Liechtenstein, an exchange of victories with the Balkans, a draw and a defeat against brilliant Luxembourg). In January, the islanders played two friendly matches, beating Guatemala and Honduras, but bookmakers don’t believe in them – only 3.4 for a victory against Israel, and the same for a draw.
The Israelis are considered the semi-final favorites – 2.19 for their triumph over the Icelanders. The Middle Eastern team never made it to the European Championship, and played at the World Cup only once – in 1970. Its FIFA rating is the worst in the quartet – a very modest 75th position. But the guys fought to the last in qualifying for the upcoming Euro, and took third place, only two points behind the passing second place. Who knows – if not for the war and the postponement of matches, maybe Israel would have entered the main tournament of the Old World without any playoffs. The three points lost in the postponed game with Kosovo would have been enough.
If there are no sensations, Israel will become Ukraine’s opponent in the potential final.
Forecast for the decisive battle
According to all canons, Ukraine is stronger than Israel. Both took third place in qualifying, but the Ukrainians let England go and had equal points with Italy – this is not Romania and Switzerland, with whom the Israelis butted heads. The Middle Eastern team, unlike the blue-and-yellows, won the group in the last Nations League and qualified for Division A, but there is no need to delude yourself – the opponents were the same problematic Iceland and Albania, and Russia, which was included in this group during the draw, was disqualified in time.
Ukraine has a much more stellar and expensive squad – according to Transfermarkt, 327.2 million euros versus only 53.2 million. The most expensive Israeli, Manor Solomon (18 million) in the ranks of the blue-yellows would share 9-10th place with Sudakov. The victory of the Middle Eastern team in the playoffs is estimated at the same 4.5 that is given to the Bosnians – that is, the Ukrainians’ opponent in the final is no more difficult than the opponent in the semifinals.
Ukraine is known for regularly causing problems for itself. If the blue-yellows play smoothly and without tricks, they are bound to win the playoffs. If a sensation happens in matches with such opponents, only the Ukrainians themselves will be to blame – and this means that they really have nothing to do at the Euro.
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